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Shanghai Copper still hasn't got rid of the moving average interweaving, long and short trading is still cautious

Aug 04,2016 / News, Industry News

[Cable Network News] On Friday, the main Shanghai copper contract showed a bottoming out and the operating range was 50830-51370 yuan/ton. It closed at 51,290 yuan/ton in late trading, which was 0.45% higher than the closing price of the previous trading day. To make up for the gap that appeared after the festival, it shows that the upper selling pressure is heavier. In terms of the term structure, the Shanghai copper futures maintained a positive arrangement of near low and far high, and the positive spread between Shanghai copper 1806 contract and 1807 contract slightly expanded to 170 yuan/ton.

In the external market, LME copper in Asia rose and fell. In particular, Shanghai copper expanded its decline after the market closed. As of 15:35 Beijing time, the three-month LME copper reported $6,838/ton, down 0.4% daily, and the copper price fell into the moving average interweaving position. There is still some oscillation. In terms of positions, on May 2nd, LMC’s position was 318,000, with a daily lightening of 3110 lots, the first lightening of positions in seven trading days, showing that long and short differences are still large.

In terms of the market, on May 4, Shanghai's spot electrolytic copper reported a discount of 30 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton for the current month's contract, and the transaction price of flat water copper was 50,870 yuan/ton to 50,900 yuan/ton. After the holiday, the value-holding plate returned after the holiday was covered. The holders had no choice but to stand up to the price. The quotation was firm at a discount of 30-premium of 10 yuan/ton. Even in the second trading period, the overall transaction was weak and the holders did not make any adjustments. Even wet-process copper is also stable at a discount of 100 yuan/ton. PASAR and Bulgaria have not many imported copper shipments. They are close to the Lufang, ISA and other quotations at a discount of 50-40 yuan/ton. The downstream continues. After receiving some goods in one day, the market rebounded and the downstream stopped again. The main transaction contribution came from the replenishment of traders, so the good copper transactions were relatively active.

On the macro level, the Asian American dollar index fluctuates in a narrow range around 92.5. The market is waiting for the results of the Sino-US trade negotiations and the non-agricultural employment data tonight. In addition, the PMI of China's Caixin service industry in April was 52.9, an increase of 0.6% from the previous month. Compared with the manufacturing industry, the service industry's prosperity has rebounded more obviously.

In terms of industry, the latest monthly report of the International Copper Industry Research Group (ICSG) shows that the global refined copper market has a surplus of 33,000 tons in January this year, and a surplus of 14,000 tons in December. The surplus has expanded. The surplus in the same period last year was 37,000 tons. . ICSG said that in January, global refined copper production was 2.05 million tons and consumption was 2.02 million tons.

During the day, the Shanghai copper 1806 contract oscillated back to 51,290 yuan/ton, still not getting rid of the moving averages, long and short trading remained cautious, as the market waited for the results of Sino-US trade, and the recent decline in copper inventories in London brought some boost. The performance of copper prices is relatively defensive. In terms of operation, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being, and focus on the operating range of the Shanghai Copper 1806 contract at 50800-51800 yuan/ton.